The U.S.-CHINA Confrontation

I have been warning that a war between China and the US is on the horizon as the world balance swings and a rival equal to the US, in terms of military and economic power, eyes up a global leadership position. History shows that a change in world order becomes likely when the opposing nation grows technologically, economically and militarily, and as a result develop a thirst for global dominance.

The US has been lambasting China with technological and economic sanctions in a bid to halt its progress, but the Chinese powerhouse continues to roar forward, finding innovative ways to counteract US action, building its own global economic environment where it can thrive. It has also been developing alliances with nations that are openly anti American: enemy’s enemy is a potential friend. This can be seen with the strong ties China has with Russia and the recent state visit of the Chinese Premier to the country, clearly designed to show the world the strength of the relationship between the two nations and their willingness to support one another. China is a mighty rival and it wants everyone to see its prowess. 

This is being aggravated by a weak US both locally and internationally. The American nation is facing one of the toughest times in recent history, with increasing inflation, a problematic banking system, rising populism and greater polarization between its public which is dividing the political scene in ways that are extremely concerning. Efforts to limit China economically, technologically and politically are already well underway, with history showing these sub-wars being precursors to an all-out conflict. There cannot be two nations leading the world and pawns are being strategically moved in preparation for battle.

The possibility of confrontation between the US and China went up a significant notch as the US Department of Defense informed Congress on 15 March 2023 that the US military must be ready for confrontation with China. The Pentagon is pushing Congress to approve an eye watering $842 billion for the modernization of US military in light of the Chinese threat.

In his speech to the US Congress, General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said “For the first time in the nation’s history, the United States is facing two major nuclear powers, whose vital national security interests are in competition with the United States.” He went onto say: “China’s actions are moving it down the path toward confrontation - and potential conflict with its neighbors and possibly the United States."

He said “Preparation for war and deterrence is extraordinarily expensive, but it's not as expensive as fighting a war. And this budget prevents war and prepares us to fight it if necessary."

Lloyd Austin III, the US Secretary of Defense told Congress “This is a strategy driven budget, and one driven by the seriousness of our strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China”. He went onto detailing how the budget would be spent, including spending $9 billion to build up military capabilities in the Pacific in order to defend allies.

Military confrontation inevitably incurs huge tragic losses on both sides, but ends with agreements between the fighting factions, with a new world order governed by the US and China, will emerge to shape our future world.

Talal Abu-Ghazaleh